After almost a year of blogging and five posts I’ve yet to write something about any of my publications. Luckily (or maybe unluckily) I’ve only authored four papers so I can start at the beginning. Here goes.
My first paper, “Quantifying variance components in ecological models based on expert opinion”, came out last year in the Journal Applied of Ecology. The lead author was Christina Czembor a post-grad and former member of the QAEG lab (We miss you Chrissy. Hopefully you’ll join us again some day!) and it was the second paper to come out of her masters thesis entitled: “Incorporating uncertainty into expert models for management of Box-Ironbark forests and woodlands in Victoria, Australia”.
In a nutshell, Chrissy built a bunch of state and transition models parameterised via expert opinion of Box-Ironbark Woodlands under alternative management scenarios. How she managed to get any work done inside a nutshell I’ll never know. The aim of the work we outlined in our paper was to suss out the influence of different sources of uncertainty in the STM model predictions. In particular, we wanted to know whether, when you ask multiple experts, does the total uncertainty stem more from disagreement among experts or from the uncertainty of individual experts.
I’ll let you read the paper to find out what the answer was.
Czembor, C.A., Morris, W.K., Wintle, B.A., Vesk, P.A. (2011). Quantifying variance components in ecological models based on expert opinion. Journal of Applied Ecology 48:736–745.